The Bihar Assembly elections of 2025 witnessed a pivotal shift in the political landscape, showcasing contrasting fortunes for the major parties involved. The ruling coalition, National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), displayed a remarkable comeback. The JD(U) nearly doubled its 2020 tally from 43 seats to around 81, capturing an increased vote share of 19%. Meanwhile, the BJP also rose from 74 seats to approximately 91, with its vote share enhancing from 19.46% to 21.18%.
However, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) faced a perplexing decline. Despite maintaining the highest vote share at 23%, the party plummeted from 75 seats in 2020 to just 27 leads in this election, revealing a significant disconnect between voter support and actual representation. The Congress party suffered even more, shrinking from 19 to only 4 leads, with a drop in their vote share from 9.48% to approximately 8%.
In contrast, notable constituency-specific trends emerged as NDA made substantial inroads even within traditional Mahagathbandhan strongholds. In Seemanchal, where Muslims constitute a significant part of the electorate, the NDA is projected to win 10-12 seats, contrasting sharply with the Mahagathbandhan's 8-10 seats in a region where they had previously fared better. Each of the distinct regions within Bihar, including Magadh, Shahabad, Mithilanchal, and Kosi, largely favored the NDA, reflecting their effective voter outreach strategies.
The election results underscored the failure of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), led by Mukesh Sahani, which aimed to support the RJD by appealing to the Extremely Backward Classes. Their lack of leads in any seats indicated a failure in both organizational strength and voter trust. Conversely, Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) surprised many by leading in over 20 of the 29 seats contested, reinforcing Paswan's position as a credible leader within the NDA.
As the NDA coalition leads in various constituencies, the voting patterns indicate a shift in women voters’ preferences favoring Nitish Kumar's initiatives, such as the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana. The rise of women voters could indicate long-term implications for future elections across multiple states in India. This election results narrative demonstrates a dynamic Bihar political environment, emphasizing not just party loyalties but also the evolving social issues that resonate with the electorate. In conclusion, the Bihar 2025 elections reflect a complicated intersection of caste, social outreach, and governance priorities that will shape the region's political trajectory for years ahead.