Recent exit polls indicate a strong possibility of victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in the 2025 Bihar elections. The projections show the NDA, which includes allies such as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), surpassing the opposition coalition known as the Mahagathbandhan. Based on the data from various polling agencies, it is suggested that the NDA could secure approximately 121 to 160 seats in the 243-seat Bihar Assembly, while Mahagathbandhan may struggle to reach the required majority.
Axis My India has forecasted the NDA winning between 121 to 141 seats with an expected vote share of around 43%. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is projected to obtain between 98 to 118 seats and a 41% vote share. Today's Chanakya's estimates are even more optimistic for the NDA, estimating around 160 seats with a 44% vote share, while suggesting that the Mahagathbandhan could acquire only 77 seats. This indicates a significant lead for the reigning coalition.
Multiple sources compiled a 'poll of polls' that collectively indicate a return of the NDA to power. The projections suggest the NDA could attain around 148 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is estimated to secure only about 88 seats, with smaller parties potentially winning around 7 seats. Other notable predictions include the People’s Pulse exit poll, indicating the NDA at 133–159 seats and the Mahagathbandhan at 75–101 seats, emphasizing a pronounced gap in favor of the NDA.
Voter turnout in Bihar has also contributed to the optimistic outlook for the major political parties. The Election Commission reported a turnout of 68.52% during the second phase of polling, which occurred across 122 constituencies, following a 65.08% turnout in the first phase. The high voter participation rate has been embraced by all significant political blocs, each asserting that it reflects a mandate for their respective agendas.
The main competition remains between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, which previously encountered a close result in the 2020 elections, with the NDA securing 125 seats and the Mahagathbandhan obtaining 110. Major players in these coalitions have made various claims in light of the current polling data, shaping the political landscape of the election ahead.
Given these indications, the political atmosphere in Bihar remains electrified as parties gear up for the conclusive stages of their campaigns, culminating in an electoral showdown that could reaffirm the NDA's dominance or redefine the state's political narrative altogether.