Bihar Elections: Voter Turnout at Record High Raises Stakes

The Indian Express
Bihar Elections: Voter Turnout at Record High Raises Stakes - Article illustration from The Indian Express

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The Bihar Assembly elections have commenced counting votes, highlighting a record-breaking voter turnout of 66.91%. This marks the highest participation since 1951, showing a significant rise compared to previous years. Analysts suggest that increased voter turnout could lead to a shift in government, as historically, five out of 17 elections with increased turnout resulted in governmental change. Both the ruling NDA and opposition Mahagathbandhan are strategizing amidst this pivotal moment, especially after the return of key allies to the NDA.

The counting of votes for the Bihar Assembly elections commenced at 8:30 am, following two phases of polling which began at 8 am across 46 counting centers in 38 districts. This election is regarded as a pivotal test for Nitish Kumar, the longest-serving chief minister of Bihar and president of the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U). Both ruling alliance NDA and opposition coalition Mahagathbandhan have voiced optimism about the increased voter turnout, which hit an impressive 66.91%, the highest since the state’s first Assembly elections in 1951. Notably, this figure marks a 9.62 percentage point increase from the 57.29% turnout in the 2020 elections. In states like Bihar, characterized by bipolar electoral contests, rises in voter turnout often signal potential governmental changes. However, the presence of smaller parties complicates the prediction, as they could siphon off critical votes from major competitors. Historically, in 17 Assembly elections, five instances of increased voter turnout have resulted in government transitions. The trend can be traced back to 1967 when the Jan Kranti Dal ousted the Congress party amidst a turnout increase of 7.04 percentage points. The 2020 elections illustrated how closely contested the political landscape is in Bihar, with the NDA only narrowly besting the Mahagathbandhan by a mere decimal point. The NDA's underperformance in recent elections has been attributed to the absence of parties like Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) from their coalition, which collectively garnered over 7% of the vote in 2020. Given their return to the alliance, the NDA hopes to regain lost ground in regions like Shahabad, historically known for its socialist and Leftist influences. The strategic maneuvering in Bihar's political scene continues to evolve, aligning longstanding political affiliations back into the fray as parties prepare to tackle the consequences of the latest voter mobilization efforts and the implications for future governance.

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