The Bihar assembly elections, conducted in two phases on November 6 and 11, 2025, have captured significant attention, particularly with various exit polls suggesting contrasting outcomes for political contenders. Notably, nine exit polls have indicated a considerable victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is primarily led by the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The NDA has been in power for a considerable time, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar leading the administration since 2005. Some exit polls forecast the NDA winning between 133 and 167 seats in the 243-member assembly.
However, a standout prediction came from the local news portal Journo Mirror, which claimed that the Mahagathbandhan, or INDIA bloc, spearheaded by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and supported by the Congress party, would secure a significant victory. This survey projected that the Mahagathbandhan would obtain between 130 and 140 seats, surpassing the majority mark of 122 seats necessary to form a government.
According to Journo Mirror, the NDA is expected to face defeat, with an anticipated win of only 100 to 110 seats. Furthermore, newcomer Jan Suraaj Party, led by Prashant Kishor, is projected to receive between 0 to 5 seats, while Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM party could potentially secure 3 to 4 seats. These predictions were shared on Journo Mirror's social media platforms, which have a combined following of over 266,000 people, marking its influence in sharing political narratives.
Despite the polling predictions, there is a caveat that exit polls have historically been inaccurate. For instance, both the 2020 and 2015 Bihar assembly elections showcased discrepancies between predicted and actual results. The final verdict on the electoral outcomes will be announced on November 14, 2025.
As the Bihar elections unfolded, the ruling NDA campaigned heavily on its track record over the past 20 years, bolstered by the Modi government's performance at the national level over the last 11 years. Conversely, the opposition Mahagathbandhan has relied on anti-incumbency sentiments, grievances regarding governance failures, and promises of employment to rally support among voters.
In summary, with various exit polls painting differing pictures of the Bihar assembly election outcomes, the prospects for both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan remain intriguing as the final results draw near.