Exit polls released recently indicate a strong likelihood that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will secure a significant victory in Bihar's assembly elections, potentially achieving a two-thirds majority. The projections suggest that the NDA could win between 145 and 167 out of the 243 seats, highlighting a notable improvement compared to previous elections. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's sustained popularity over nearly two decades, with only a brief gap, is attributed as a key factor behind the NDA's anticipated success. Conversely, the Mahagathbandhan, spearheaded by the RJD, is expected to secure between 70 and 102 seats, demonstrating a considerable distance from the NDA’s projected figures. Additionally, the new party, Jan Suraaj, led by Prashant Kishor, is not expected to make a significant mark in terms of assembly seat wins.

Historically, exit polls in India have yielded mixed results, with some accurately predicting outcomes while others have fallen short. The majority threshold in the Bihar assembly is set at 122 seats, with a two-thirds majority requiring 162 seats. The NDA has previously achieved this mark in 2010 when it won 206 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan reached its peak in 2015 with 178 seats. However, in the most recent 2020 elections, the NDA secured only 125 seats to the Mahagathbandhan's 110, underscoring the unpredictability of electoral outcomes. As the final results are scheduled to be announced soon, analysts await the confirmation of these exit poll projections from major polling firms, which are due to be revealed in the coming days.